Bitcoin just triggered a signal that has appeared only three times before, and each time it preceded a new bull run. The Fisher Transform indicator printed a monthly bullish crossover in August, according to analyst Willy Woo. He calls it the fourth such reading in Bitcoin's entire trading history.

The crossover happened in July at a reading of -2.26. On the previous three occasions this indicator flipped bullish on the monthly chart, Bitcoin was at or near a bear market bottom. Woo summarized it bluntly: "BTC bottoms: 3 for 3 without fake out. Latest cross is the 4th on record."

What The Fisher Transform Actually Measures

The Fisher Transform is a technical tool built in 2002. It takes raw price data and smooths it into a clearer trend signal, correcting for the fact that markets tend to cluster around extreme values more than typical statistical models expect.

The indicator uses two lines: the Fisher line and a trigger line, which follows one period behind. Both move on a scale centered at zero. When the Fisher line crosses above the trigger line after a deep negative reading, it has historically flagged a shift from decline to recovery.

One earlier example came in late 2022, when the indicator hit -3.83 near the bottom of that bear market. Bitcoin spent most of 2023 and 2024 recovering from that low before reaching new highs.

Why Bottoms Read Cleaner Than Tops

Woo offers a reason why this signal works better at market bottoms than at tops. During bull runs, short-term speculators pile in and out fast, creating false crossovers that reverse again before a real trend forms.

At market bottoms, those speculative traders are largely gone. Buyers who step in are doing so because they see value, not because they are chasing momentum. That, Woo argues, produces a reversal with less back-and-forth noise.

"When price falls to a point where investors find value, buy-pressure fires back up but we are devoid of speculators," Woo wrote. "Price reverses more cleanly without the choppy fake outs seen in tops."

A Second Pattern On The Weekly Chart

Beyond the monthly signal, Woo pointed to a separate bullish divergence forming on the weekly chart through 2026. The Fisher Transform hit a swing low of -2.85 in late December 2025, when Bitcoin traded near $90,000.

Since then, the indicator has posted a string of higher lows even as Bitcoin's price posted lower lows. That gap between price and momentum is a classic bullish divergence. The same setup appeared during the final six months of the 2022 bear market, right before that cycle turned.

The Case For Caution

Woo's own analysis includes a warning. He notes that Fisher crossovers can fail during bull markets, printing a bearish signal that later needs a second bullish cross to confirm the trend. That already happened once in this cycle, so a repeat isn't out of the question.

Doubts about the bottom also linger elsewhere. Bitcoin fell to a 21-month low near $57,000 on July 1, and it remains unclear whether that level marked the actual cycle low. Just last week, Woo noted a lack of typical buyer interest at that price, with onchain data suggesting only a small number of large holders were accumulating, not the broad base of buyers usually seen at real bottoms.

Other onchain metrics have flashed bear-market reversal signals in recent months, adding to a mixed but building case for recovery. Bitcoin trades near $78,100 today, up over 2% on the day and well off the July lows, though still far from the roughly $111,000 peak it hit a year ago.

What This Means Going Forward

The Fisher Transform's track record gives this signal weight that casual chart patterns don't carry. Three for three on prior bottoms is a real sample, even if small. But three data points also means one wrong call would end the streak, and Bitcoin's own recent price action shows genuine uncertainty about whether July's low truly holds.

Readers watching this setup should treat it as one input among several, not a standalone call. The weekly divergence, the monthly crossover, and the thinner-than-usual buying at the July lows together paint a picture of a market that may be turning, but hasn't fully proven it yet.