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Bitcoin fell 7% to around $77,000 on Saturday in what could be the deepest pullback of the current bull cycle. Cointelegraph reported that analyst PlanC suggested this level may represent the ultimate low for Bitcoin during this market phase.

The asset has since recovered slightly to $78,690 as of publication time. Bitcoin now trades 38% below its all-time high of $126,100, which was reached on October 5. PlanC compared the current downturn to previous market capitulation events, including the 2018 bear market and the FTX collapse.

The analyst stated there is a decent chance the ultimate low will fall between $75,000 and $80,000. Bitcoin advocate Rajat Soni warned traders not to overreact to weekend volatility. He noted Bitcoin often makes comebacks when least expected.

The weekend price drop triggered $1.7 billion in liquidations across the cryptocurrency market. AInvest documented that institutional flows turned sharply negative during the same period. On January 29, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $818 million in net outflows, the largest daily reversal in recent months.

The sell-off was primarily driven by derivatives traders unwinding over-leveraged long positions. Data showed $4.1 billion in taker sales volume concentrated within just a few hours. The breakdown below the $85,000 support zone acted as a key trigger for this cascade.

BlackRock's IBIT led the institutional exodus with $317.81 million in redemptions on January 29. This single product's outflow exceeded the combined $287.49 million pulled from Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC. The combination of aggressive futures liquidations and ETF outflows created powerful downward pressure on price.

Bitcoin continues to trade within its post-halving Acceleration Phase according to Fidelity Digital Assets. The firm noted that as of February 2025, Bitcoin is now over the midway point of this phase from a historical perspective. The 2024-2025 cycle is behaving similarly to past cycles, with blow-off tops historically happening later in the phase.

We previously documented that governments worldwide are considering Bitcoin reserves, adding another dimension to institutional adoption discussions. This trend continues despite current market volatility, as traditional financial systems explore Bitcoin integration.

Several veteran traders predict further downside remains possible. Peter Brandt recently forecast Bitcoin could fall to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's director of global macro research, suggested 2026 could be a "year off" for Bitcoin, with prices potentially dropping to $65,000.

However, not all analysts share the bearish outlook. Bitcoin has historically shown strength in February during post-halving years, with an average return of 40.74% across previous cycles. The current environment remains uncertain as markets balance institutional adoption against macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory ambiguity.