• Bitcoin’s Advanced Sentiment Index dropped to 46.1% despite price recovery, slipping below the neutral 50% level.
• BTC must reclaim OBV above -80K and sentiment over 65% to sustainably move past $107K; else, $101.5K looms.

Since reaching a high of $110k four days ago, Bitcoin [BTC] has made significant losses amid political tensions in the Middle East. Over this period, BTC dropped to a low of $102k and then bounced back to $105k. 

Despite this bounce, underlying signals suggested that bullish conviction was fading fast.

Bitcoin sentiment weakens below neutral

The Advanced Sentiment Index dropped to 46.1%, slipping under the neutral zone after peaking above 80% last week.

The drop happened despite Bitcoin recovering to $106K, largely because Open Interest and Net Buy Volume failed to sustain the rally. In fact, Open Interest fell sharply from $37.8B to $33.7B—an exit of $4.1B in capital.

Naturally, such a drop indicated traders were closing positions to reduce risk. With liquidity thinning, the market showed signs of growing bearish sentiment.

At the same time, as OI declined, Net Buy Volume also dipped, with the Volume Delta remaining close to zero. So, capital inflow had reduced, with investors taking a step back in the market. 

Also, Bitcoin’s OBV remained negative below 100k, signaling a lack of bullish volume support, rising risk for a pullback. This is because sellers are active in the market and continue to exit the market. 

This behavior is more prevalent among Bitcoin Long-Term Holders, especially as LTH SOPR has surged significantly, hitting a monthly high.

The group’s selling over the past two days has weighed on price stability.

What’s next for BTC if volumes stay low?

Bitcoin is hovering around $102k and $105k after the recent price pullback, as the market lacks significant volume.

For BTC to move above this range, the market needs a surge in volume where OBV moves above -80k. 

At the same time, Bitcoin’s Advanced Sentiment Index would need to climb past 65% to confirm renewed momentum. That shift must also reflect in stronger Net Taker Volume and rising Open Interest.

Until then, sellers are likely to remain in control. If volume stays muted, BTC could retest the $102K support, or even slide to $101,500.

read more