Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick says crypto winter is over.

In a note published Friday, Kendrick maintained his year-end price targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum, arguing that Bitcoin’s slide to around $59,000 most likely marked the cycle bottom. The expert noted that the cycle low represents a 53% decline from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 set on October 6, and that “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring.”

Kendrick identified two primary drivers behind the recent selloff and the conditions now reversing it. The first was ETF redemptions, as total outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $5.72 billion since the second week of May, with anecdotal evidence suggesting holders were liquidating positions to free up cash for the SpaceX IPO.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq on Friday at an opening price of around $150, and is now roughly 26% above that level. Notably, SpaceX crypto contracts on Hyperliquid recently traded at a valuation of up to $2.4 trillion ahead of the listing. With that demand now absorbed, Kendrick expects the specific selling pressure it created to ease.

The second driver was geopolitical. A G7-related U.S.-Iran peace deal, if confirmed, could prevent oil prices from rising further, which would in turn cool U.S. Treasury yields and ease macro pressure on crypto. Brent crude fell to around $87 a barrel and WTI to $85 as President Trump signaled a likely agreement, though he later walked it back on Truth Social, warning Tehran to “get their act together.”

To confirm the bottom holds, Kendrick said he’s watching for a Strategy bitcoin purchase announcement on Monday and a return to net-positive ETF inflows by Friday.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $62,923, up 1.15% on the day, with an 80.4% seven-day correlation to the S&P 500 pointing to a shared macro relief rally. 

Ethereum outperformed, climbing 1.08% to $1,698 on capital rotation into altcoins, consistent with Kendrick’s view that ETH may lead Bitcoin in the near term.