A well-known market analyst recently suggested that XRP may currently be following the same pattern that led to its monumental surge from $0.5 in November 2024 to $3.4 in January 2025.

XRP has continued to face significant selling pressure since the ongoing downtrend began in Q4 2025, with prices now dropping to the lower end of the $1 region. The altcoin is now down 68% from its $3.6 peak in July 2025.

Most recently, XRP crashed below the support range around $1.27 to $1.31 on June 1 and has since flipped this support to resistance, unable to reclaim it, as it trades for $1.13.

However, Tom, a well-known market watcher, has recently suggested that this prevailing downtrend may actually be part of a larger script that could lead to substantial gains. According to him, XRP is following the same price action pattern that preceded its late-2024 upsurge.

He disclosed this in an analysis on X, presenting chart data as proof of his findings. Interestingly, when the market commentator identified XRP’s price action from March 2024 and overlaid it with the current price movements, both fractals aligned almost perfectly.

For context, XRP faced similar struggles in 2024, dropping from a local top of $0.745 in mid-March 2024 to a floor of $0.42 by April of that year before finding support. After this, XRP continued to struggle between $0.40 and $0.50, occasionally dropping to $0.38 before recovering.

This bearish consolidation trend persisted throughout 2024 despite a few occasional spikes above $0.60. However, by November 2024, XRP witnessed a sudden upward thrust from the $0.5 level on the back of Donald Trump’s victory in the last U.S. presidential election.

From the $0.5 level, XRP first rallied to $1.26 on Nov. 16, 2024, breaching the $1 mark for the first time in more than three years. From here, it soared to $1.63 in late November and then to $2.9 by Dec. 3, 2024. The rally faced a roadblock here before resuming to $3.4 in January 2025.

Data from Tom’s chart overlay suggests that a similar trend could actually be playing out. Like in early 2024, XRP crashed from a high of $2.41 in January 2026, dropping to a floor of $1.1 by early February before recovering.

$XRP is forming a similar pattern to the 2024 run that took us from $0.50 to $3.30 👀

Except… this time the 1.272 Fib extension points to $8.42 🎯‼️ https://t.co/60Vwj5uTCr pic.twitter.com/gfnYHLgT47

— Tom (@Tom0nChain) June 18, 2026

However, despite the rebound push, XRP failed to recover its previous highs, facing firm resistance around the $1.6 mark. The crypto asset witnessed a bearish consolidation spell between $1.2 and $1.4 from February to May, but eventually crashed to $1.05 in early June. This was similar to the slump to $0.38 by July 2024.

Notably, XRP recovered from this July 2024 low, and Tom’s chart overlay suggests a similar rebound could occur even as the asset currently trades for $1.13. If the historical pattern plays out, XRP could rebound toward the $1.4 to $1.6 zone and consolidate here for a few months before eventually breaking out.

Interestingly, the chart posits that XRP could eventually rally into price discovery after it breaks out of the consolidation, pushing above the $7 price level before facing resistance and pulling back. After that, a milder surge to $8.1 could ensue. This ultimate target would represent a 616% rise from current prices.

However, it is important to note that past performance does not guarantee future results. Notably, there is no guarantee that XRP would replicate this run, as market conditions today are very different from 2024. 

In addition, most traders insist that the 2024 upsurge was mainly driven by Donald Trump’s election victory, and not XRP’s unique technical strength. As a result, they suggest that if a similar bullish development does not occur, XRP may not repeat the rally.